財經 北京新浪網 繼續偏愛融資者,哪位金主直接跪了?

繼續偏愛融資者,哪位金主直接跪了?

北京新浪網 2018-11-09 22:21



01

在央行行長易綱表態要拿出真金白銀支持民企發展後,銀保監會就提出了要向民企融資送出「及時雨」:要在三年以後,銀行業對民營企業的貸款佔新增公司類貸款的比例不低於50%!

事實上,在民營上市公司紛紛因為前幾年太過樂觀,貸了過多的錢去擴張之際,又趕上了經濟增長乏力,外貿環境轉差、以及疊加了一系列的去槓桿的政策,導致現在流動性陷入枯竭。易綱在講話中也表示很清楚問題的癥結:那就是各項緊縮的政策相互疊加,令企業面對的形勢就加倍嚴重起來。這個道理很好理解,十個金融部門為了自己完成去槓桿的要求,都要求貸款者提前歸還貸款,那麼貸款人承受的就是貸款全部抽回,流動性便迅速枯竭,除了賣資產,別無它途。

既然知道了政策的疊加效果幾乎是指數型的,為啥現在放水又來一個大疊加呢?在地方政府籌備解困資金、券商籌備解困資金的情況下,當然也有保險與信託機構出錢來干這生意的,現在銀行貌似又要大放水了。

02

真是早知如此,何必當初呢?當初資管新規徵求意見,大家都反應去槓桿太急了,不聽,非說大家不了解情況,沒有站在大局考慮問題。好了,這才通過生效不到十個月吧,又急得團團轉,在想怎麼放槓桿了。最新的消息是:國常會要求加大金融支持,解決中小企業融資難、融資貴的問題,同時決定將MLF合格擔保標準擴大!其中最最重要的要點來了:力爭在四季度金融機構新發放的小微企業平均貸款利率比一季度降低一個百分點!

這下你知道哪位金主直接跪了吧?就是銀行啊!存款利息不能降,新增的小微貸收益要降一個百分點!小微企業因為本身的經營風險高,本來貸款就是要貴一些才能彌補成本,現在好了,剛收回來的質量不錯的貸款,又要冒著更大的風險、低收益地放出去!

今日上海銀行分時圖:


估計是剛收回來的槓桿真是不好意思又追著人家放,然後新的小微企業真是不敢貸。結果只能是狂買政府債,今日瞄了一眼,地方政府的平台債居然有了50倍的認購了,瘋狂的勁頭又上來了。融資者的天堂又來了。

然後,一直說要保護投資者利益的證監會,也湊熱鬧去疊加政策:再次對融資方高抬貴手:繼此前把IPO被否企業借殼上市的時間從三年縮短到6個月後,又要積極推出註冊制搞科創板,然後,今天還宣布:允許前次募集資金基本使用完畢或募集資金投向未發生變更且按計劃投入的上市公司,申請增發、配股、非公開發行股票不受18個月融資間隔限制!但是原則上不得少於6個月!

現在的投資者面對融資間隔18個月都招架不住了,不說從5178點跌到2499點已經腰斬,就是今年上證指數也已經下跌了約28%了!多少個股市值已經腰斬再腰斬,還要放寬再融資間隔,融資速度不但不減,還要提速3倍!?

03

中國股市20年來,融了多少錢?可是為什麼投的錢越多,企業越缺錢了呢?要求融資的企業每周都有,可是分紅的企業是每周都有嗎?有多少企業能讓投資者感覺投資是有回報的?企業是值得投資的?我們總說好企業去了國外,其實這是最大的謊言,好企業我們確實是都留給A股了,但是我們的A股卻演變成企業經營的終極目標,只要上市,想的就是怎麼高位套現了!我們的監管沒有放在要企業真心實意出效益上,而是任由上市公司財務造假,炒高股票高位套現走人!

看下今天的跌幅榜,金主是不是已經帶頭給跪了?

(數據來源同花順,下同)

大家可以仔細地再看一下,銀行與保險兩大行業板塊,不但跌幅分別是老大老二,更厲害的是,居然沒有一個領漲品種啊!28家銀行與7家保險公司,今日無一上漲!

再看分級B,表現更加明顯。

今日跌幅最大的十隻分級B基金:


金融地B直接跌停,當然它的成交量太小,或許沒有什麼代表性。此外幾隻銀行類的分級B的跌幅也都超過5%了。本來銀行是估值最低的板塊,相對分紅又比較高,設計成分級B是非常好的產品,沒想到,只要政策到位,也一樣可以跌入跌幅榜前列!下面沒有幾隻成交量較大的銀行分級B,跌幅全都在4.5%以上。

就連銀行ETF,都跌了3%,跌到折價了,這說明有經驗的投資者其實早就不看好銀行板塊了。

平點金基已關聯訊飛快讀基金?小程序~

雙語閱讀~

Continue to favor the financiers,?

which gold master directly smashed?

After the central bank governor Yi Gang stated that he wanted to come up with real money to support the development of private enterprises, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed to send 「timely rain」 to private enterprises: after three years, the banking industry』s loans to private enterprises accounted for new companies. The proportion of loans is not less than 50%!

In fact, in the private listed companies have been too optimistic in the past few years, lending too much money to expand, but also caught up with the lack of economic growth, the deterioration of the foreign trade environment, and a series of de-leverage policies This has led to the current depletion of liquidity. In his speech, Yi Gang also said that the crux of the problem is very clear: that is, the policies of various tightening are superimposed on each other, and the situation faced by enterprises is doubled. This principle is very understandable. Ten financial departments require the lender to return the loan in advance in order to complete the delevering requirement. The lender is allotted the loan, and the liquidity is quickly exhausted. Except for selling assets, there is no such thing. way.

Now that we know that the superposition effect of the policy is almost exponential, why is there a big superposition of water now? In the case of local governments to solve the problem of funds and brokers to solve the problem of relief funds, of course, there are insurance and trust institutions to pay for this business, and now the bank seems to have to release water.

I really knew this, why should I be at the beginning? When the newly-invested new regulations solicited opinions, everyone responded that the deleveraging was too urgent, and did not listen, not to say that everyone did not understand the situation and did not consider the issue in the overall situation. Ok, this is only less than ten months after it has been in force, and it』s anxious to turn around and think about how to put leverage. The latest news is: The National Council will ask for increased financial support to solve the problem of financing difficulties and financing for SMEs, and at the same time decide to expand the MLF qualified guarantee standard! One of the most important points came: Strive to reduce the average lending rate of small and micro enterprises newly issued by financial institutions in the fourth quarter by one percentage point from the first quarter!

Do you know which gold master is directly smashed? It is the bank! Deposit interest can not be reduced, the new small micro-loan income will be reduced by one percentage point! Because of the high operational risks of small and micro enterprises, the original loan is more expensive to make up for the cost. Now, the good quality loan that has just been recovered must be released with greater risk and low profit!

It is estimated that the lever that has just been recovered is really embarrassing and chasing others, and then the new small and micro enterprises are really afraid to lend. The result can only be a mad purchase of government bonds. Today, I took a glance. The local government』s platform debt actually had 50 times of subscription, and the crazy energy came up again. The paradise of financiers is coming again.

Then, the CSRC, which has always said that it wants to protect the interests of investors, has also joined in the fun of superimposing the policy: once again raising the high-handedness to the financing side: following the previous period of shortening the IPO by the company』s backdoor listing from three years to six months, it is necessary to actively launch The registration system was used to create a board, and then announced today: Allowing the basic use of the previous fundraising or the raised funds to be invested in a listed company that has not changed and invested as planned, applying for additional issuance, allotment, and non-public offering of shares for 18 months. Financing interval limit! But in principle it must be no less than 6 months!

Today's investors can't stand up to the financing interval of 18 months. Not to mention that they have fallen from 5178 points to 2499 points. This year, the Shanghai Composite Index has also fallen by about 28%! How many stock market values have already been swayed, and the refinancing interval has to be relaxed. The financing speed will not be reduced, but it will be 3 times faster! ?

How much has the Chinese stock market melted in the past 20 years? But why is the more money invested, the more money the company lacks? Companies that require financing are available every week, but are dividend-paying companies available every week? How many companies can make investors feel that investment is rewarding? Is the enterprise worth investing? We always say that good companies have gone abroad. In fact, this is the biggest lie. We are really reserved for A-shares, but our A-shares have evolved into the ultimate goal of business management. As long as we go public, we think about how to cash out. Now! Our supervision has not been placed on the company's sincere intention to benefit, but to allow listed companies to make financial fraud, and to speculate on high stocks to go away!

Looking at today's falling list, has the gold master already taken the lead?

(Data source is flush, the same below)

Everyone can look at it carefully. The two major sectors of the banking and insurance sectors are not only the bosses, but also the most powerful ones. 28 banks and 7 insurance companies have not risen today!

Looking at the rating B, the performance is more obvious.

Ten rating B funds with the biggest decline today:

Financial land B directly falls, of course, its trading volume is too small, perhaps not representative. In addition, the rating B of several banking classes has also fallen by more than 5%. Originally, the bank was the lowest valuation sector, and the relative dividends were relatively high. The design level B was a very good product. I did not expect that as long as the policy is in place, it can fall into the forefront of the decline list! There are not a few banks with a large volume of transactions below, and the declines are all above 4.5%.

Even the bank ETFs fell by 3% and fell to a discount. This shows that experienced investors have long been unaware of the banking sector.


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